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POLITICO Playbook — POLITICO

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

The fate of CPAC and Donald Trump are tied together, with attendance shaping up to be a statement about whether or not one wants Trump to be the party’s future leader. | John Raoux/AP Photo

YOU NEVER FORGET YOUR FIRST — “Joe Manchin and Jon Tester tee up Biden’s first veto,” by Eleanor Mueller and Allison Prang

KNIVES OUT — “Fox News election fraud revelations could take down the network’s embattled chief,” by CNN’s Oliver Darcy

DOWN AND OUT IN NATIONAL HARBOR — Back in 2015, one of us was at a Republican presidential primary debate where we ran into MATT and MERCEDES SCHLAPP while waiting to do a cable news hit.

Naturally, the conversation turned to DONALD TRUMP.

The Schlapps were a power couple in Republican politics who met in the GEORGE W. BUSH White House and became successful lobbyists, political strategists and commentators. The previous year, 2014, Matt Schlapp became chairman of the American Conservative Union, best known for its annual CPAC event in Washington.

Since Trump’s first appearance at CPAC in 2011, the conference had become an early venue for him to court the base of the Republican Party.

But to the Schlapps, Trump showing up and delivering sick burns about then-President BARACK OBAMA was one thing. Leading the party was quite another. They were appalled by Trump’s surge in the polls and dreaded him becoming the GOP nominee.

Like so many similar conversations we had with Republicans back then — MICK MULVANEY and TOM PRICE also stand out — that encounter with the Schlapps stuck with us over the years as Trump became president, CPAC became defined by MAGA, and the Schlapps became die-hard Trump supporters — “Washington’s Trump-Era ‘It Couple,’” as a 2018 headline in the NYT put it.

Now, the fate of the Schlapp-era CPAC and Donald Trump himself are tied together.

The annual event, which began yesterday in National Harbor, has been abandoned by most top GOP elected officials. Here’s a breakdown:

  • Senate GOP leadership: None attending.
  • House GOP leadership: Only ELISE STEFANIK is attending.
  • GOP governors: Only Idaho Gov. BRAD LITTLE.
  • GOP presidential candidates, declared and undeclared: Trump, NIKKI HALEY, MIKE POMPEO and VIVEK RAMASWAMY.

Outside the MAGA bubble, the event has literally become a punchline. JIMMY KIMMEL and JIMMY FALLON both mocked it in their monologues last night.

“CPAC stands for ‘Clowns Periodically Assembling in Convention Centers,’” said Kimmel.

“It’s basically Coachella for people who post on Facebook in all caps,” joked Fallon. “After each speech, there will be a QAnon — I’m sorry, Q&A.”

There are several GOP senators going (TED CRUZ, MARSHA BLACKBURN, JOHN KENNEDY, TOMMY TUBERVILLE, BILL HAGERTY, J. D. VANCE, MIKE BRAUN, RICK SCOTT and ERIC SCHMITT), but attendance at the event is shaping up as a statement about whether you want Trump as the future of the party or not.

Natalie Allison and Meridith McGraw explore the new politics of CPAC with some more takeaways about the event, which will run through Saturday night, when Trump’s speech will close out the event:

“The Republican establishment is down on CPAC,” they write. “But for Donald Trump and his campaign operation, the conservative conference is not just the main event, it’s a crucial early test of his political strength. … If this weekend’s event mimics the conferences of recent years, Trump is preparing to bask in the glow. But that also raises the stakes for him. A poor showing in the crowd or in the CPAC straw poll could feed chatter that his grip on the GOP is failing. …

“His likely top rival in a GOP primary, Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS, is skipping CPAC along with other potential 2024 candidates and top Republican officials. Former Vice President MIKE PENCE and Sen. TIM SCOTT will gather with DeSantis and other GOP presidential hopefuls behind closed doors at The Breakers, a luxury Palm Beach resort, to address donors at a retreat hosted by the anti-tax group Club for Growth. Trump was not invited to attend. …

“CPAC’s pull on establishment Republicans appears to have waned not just because the organization has tied itself closely to Trump. The conservative group is also navigating a serious public relations crisis as its chair, Matt Schlapp, faces sexual assault allegations from a GOP campaign staffer. The alleged victim, a former employee of HERSCHEL WALKER’s Senate campaign, sued Schlapp and his wife Mercedes in January for nearly $10 million. The couple has denied wrongdoing. …

“And while a cast of Fox News stars have studded conservative conferences in recent months — SEAN HANNITY at CPAC Dallas in August, and both TUCKER CARLSON and LAURA INGRAHAM at Turning Point USA’s year-end conference in Phoenix — none of those high-profile commentators are scheduled to appear this weekend. Nor is Fox Nation, the network’s digital streaming platform, listed as a sponsor this year, as it has been previously.”

For his part, Schlapp is taking issue with the spurt of CPAC obituaries. “We have never had such a strong lineup of speakers,” he told the AP’s Jill Colvin and Michelle Price.

Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Mounted police are deployed as Israelis block a main road to protest against plans by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s new government to overhaul the judicial system, in Tel Aviv, Israel, Wednesday, March 1, 2023. | Oded Balilty/AP Photo

2024 WATCH

WHO WILL STAND WITH TRUMP? — “Trump’s loosening grip on GOP defines early 2024 campaign,” by Ally Mutnick and Sarah Ferris: “As of March 1, fewer than 20 House Republicans have formally endorsed Trump in the four months since he declared his third campaign, according to a POLITICO analysis. Roughly another dozen have publicly supported Trump in some way, though short of a formal endorsement.”

The view from Trump world: “For now, Trump’s campaign doesn’t appear concerned about their tally of congressional support. Members of Trump’s team are in regular contact with lawmakers and they expect to roll out more endorsements soon, according to an adviser to Trump.”

The context: “The widespread hesitancy would not be notable in another era — or if a former president was not already in the race. But in this instance, the lack of public support is perhaps the clearest sign yet that members feel Trump’s support is no longer a prerequisite for political survival. Trump’s vengeance is now barely registering as a threat, after years as one of the most dominant forces in politics. … In interviews with nearly 20 House Republicans, many cited the uncertainty in the field as reason to keep quiet for now.”

THE WHITE HOUSE

Evan Vucci/AP Photo

BIDEN RALLIES HOUSE DEMS — Yesterday, President Biden “took a victory lap with House Democrats at their yearly retreat with one clear message: Let’s tout our legislative wins,” Nicholas Wu and Daniella Diaz write from Baltimore. “Biden stopped by the Democrats’ yearly retreat, this time in Baltimore, where he listed off all their accomplishments in the 117th Congress, when Democrats held both chambers.”

What Biden said: “It’s been one of the most successful, united caucuses we have ever seen. And you all stick together. Thank god, look what’s already happened.”

The bogeywoman: “At one point, Biden even took a swing at Freedom Caucus member MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.), suggesting her politics are driving Republicans to the Democratic Party. ‘A little bit more Marjorie Taylor Greene, a few more and you’re gonna have a lot of Republicans run on our way,’ he joked to House Democrats as they laughed in the audience. ‘Isn’t she amazing? Oof.’”

Taking attendance: “The lion’s share of caucus members cheered Biden on in Charm City, though several skipped his speech and stayed in D.C. for a tribute concert honoring singer-songwriter JONI MITCHELL.

AP’s Lisa Mascaro and Seung Min Kim note that Biden’s speech came “as energized Republicans are forcing the initial veto of his presidency — on a measure to limit the way private financial advisers promote ‘woke’ investment options.”

SHIFTING SENTIMENT — “Biden Challenged by Softening Public Support for Arming Ukraine,” by NYT’s Peter Baker: “Polls show public support for arming the Ukrainians softening while the two leading Republican presidential candidates are increasingly speaking out against involvement in the war. While the bipartisan coalition in Congress favoring Ukraine has been strong in the year since Russia’s invasion, supporters of more aid fear the centrifugal forces of the emerging presidential contest and growing taxpayer fatigue with shipping tens of billions of dollars overseas may undercut the war effort before Moscow can be defeated. And some of them are frustrated that Mr. Biden has not done more to shore up support.”

JUST POSTED — “White House proposes $1. 6 billion to combat ‘historic’ covid aid fraud,” by WaPo’s Tony Romm

TRUMP CARDS

WHO’S TALKING — “Kellyanne Conway Meets With Prosecutors as Trump Inquiry Escalates,” by NYT’s Sean Piccoli, Jonah Bromwich, Ben Protess and William Rashbaum: “KELLYANNE CONWAY, who managed the final months of Donald J. Trump’s 2016 campaign, met with prosecutors from the Manhattan district attorney’s office on Wednesday, the latest sign that the office is ramping up its criminal investigation into the former president. …

“[MICHAEL] COHEN has said that Ms. Conway played a small yet notable role in the payment [of hush money to STORMY DANIELS]: she was the person Mr. Cohen alerted after making the payment, he wrote in his 2020 memoir. … It is unclear whether Ms. Conway appeared before the grand jury or was only interviewed by prosecutors.”

CONGRESS

VANCE’S VANTAGE POINT — “How J.D. Vance made Dem friends on rail safety,” by Burgess Everett: “The first-term senator still has an undeniably hard edge to his conservatism: Vance opposes continued Ukraine aid, attacks Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG for his derailment response, is one of just five Senate Republicans backing former President Donald Trump’s third presidential campaign and still won’t say whether he supported MITCH McCONNELL as Republican leader.

“So don’t expect him to charge into the Senate’s famed bipartisan gangs. He’s still skeptical of ‘bipartisanship for its own sake,’ quipping in an interview in his temporary basement office this week that ‘the Iraq war was bipartisan, and it was a fucking disaster.’ Even so, the 38-year-old quickly built an intriguing dynamic with [Democratic Sen. SHERROD] BROWN, a flinty 70-year-old who needs support from some of Vance’s voters next November to win his own tough reelection battle.”

Notable quotable: “I certainly came in expecting the political environment to be so partisan, that it would be harder to get anything done. In reality, so long as you’re not being a total jerk about it, I think it’s possible to do things.”

THE NEW GOP — “McCarthy, GOP introduce measure to protect ‘parents’ rights,’” by AP’s Farnoush Amiri

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Fight Corporate Monopolies, the political arm of the American Economic Liberties Project, is going up with a slate of new TV ads tonight, airing in primetime on Fox News during “Tucker Carlson Tonight. ” The ads will be targeted in the districts of Reps. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio), THOMAS MASSIE (R-Ky.), SCOTT FITZGERALD (R-Wis.) and DARRELL ISSA (R-Calif.), four members who have come out publicly against a federal effort to ban non-compete agreements across the country. More info

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — Rep. ANGIE CRAIG (D-Minn.) speaks with our colleague Jackie Padilla about her assault in her D.C. apartment complex and potential legislation she is looking at regarding public safety, mental health and homelessness. The two also listen to some of the voicemails people left after her attack was discussed on Fox News’ “The Five.” Watch the interview on The POLITICO Show on Snapchat