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Putin is not bluffing.

Investigators about Russian troops near Ukraine – DW – 17.02.2022

Russian military equipment during exercises in Belarus Photo: BelTA/AP/dpa/picture alliance

PoliticsRussia

Elena Gunkel

17.02.202 2022

Russia announces troop withdrawal after exercises near Ukrainian border. But CIT investigators are confident that the forces remaining in the maneuver area will be enough to start a large-scale war. nine0011

https://p.dw.com/p/47BL7

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In February 2022, Russia began holding several major military exercises, including in Belarus and in annexed Crimea. In the West, this was perceived as preparation for a possible invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, the Kremlin has repeatedly stated that it does not plan to attack the neighboring state.

On February 15, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation showed footage showing how military equipment is being taken out, in particular, from Crimea. However, according to a number of Western intelligence services, there is no real withdrawal of troops. The Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) also believes that the threat of a Russian war with Ukraine remains. CIT founder Ruslan Leviev said in an interview with DW that all the military units Moscow needs to wage a full-scale war, from paratroopers to the National Guard, are currently located near the Ukrainian border. He also spoke about recent Russian troop movements and signs that Putin is not bluffing. nine0011

DW: Ruslan, just before the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on February 15 in Moscow, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced a partial withdrawal of forces from the Ukrainian border. Meanwhile, NATO says that its experts do not observe a real withdrawal of troops, and Bloomberg and CNN report that Russia even deployed an additional 7,000 troops to the Ukrainian border. What data do you have on this?

— Indeed, we do not observe any significant withdrawal of troops. We see those trains that the Ministry of Defense itself took off, that is, a train that departed, for example, from the Crimea or from the Kursk region. Apparently they are on their way home. However, if we add together those units that are allegedly being withdrawn, then, probably, it will be two, maybe three thousand soldiers, along with equipment. But this is a drop in the ocean. After all, about 150,000 Russian soldiers have been assembled on the Russian-Ukrainian border and along the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. nine0011 Ruslan Leviev Photo: Privat

It is also worth noting that those units that were initially declared to be withdrawn from Crimea — because the first videos published by the Russian Ministry of Defense were filmed at the Bakhchisaray station in Crimea — were located and so not near the border with the Kherson region of Ukraine. They were located in the most southwestern part of the Crimea and did not pose a particular threat. We hope that the unit that left the Crimea, namely the 136th motorized rifle brigade, whose base is located in the city of Buynaksk in Dagestan, will indeed return to this base. So far, we have not seen them there. Otherwise, satellite imagery and eyewitness video footage from the scene show that the picture has not changed in any way. The landfills that are dangerously close to the border (what the Western media call attack positions) do not empty, the equipment continues to stand there, and in some places even continues to arrive and unload, we see it. nine0011

Now the «hot spot» is Belgorod and areas near it. Equipment continues to arrive in Belgorod, and from there — to go in two directions. Firstly, towards the villages of Veselaia Lopan and Krasny Oktyabr, which are located 10-20 kilometers from the border with Ukraine, near Kharkov. We have already seen field camps there. And secondly: towards the urban settlement of Tomarovka and the settlements of Rakitnoe and Krasnaya Yaruga. This is also very close to the border with Ukraine, but we do not yet know where the field camp is located on this side. nine0011

The day before yesterday we wrote that the Second Regiment of Radiation Chemical and Biological Protection Troops arrived in Kursk with Solntsepek heavy flamethrower systems. From Kursk they went towards the border, but it is not yet known exactly where. On February 11-12, we received messages and saw on video recordings that the 423rd motorized rifle regiment of the 4th tank division, including almost all contract soldiers, was boarding trains in Naro-Fominsk and going to Voronezh. As a result, in Voronezh, we have not noticed him yet. Although it is possible that we simply missed it. What plans this regiment has after Voronezh is still unknown. Either they will go to the training ground near Voronezh, where another unit of their tank division was stationed, or they will immediately turn towards the border with Ukraine and end up, for example, in the Belgorod region. nine0011

— So far, the Western media have been circulating a figure of 100, maybe 130,000 Russian troops near the border with Ukraine. You mentioned the number of 150 thousand. Is this different data or a sign that the contingent has really increased in recent days?

— At a time when preparations for a conditional large-scale operation were not yet completed (and now it can be said to be completed), among military analysts they operated with numbers of units of the so-called battalion tactical groups. These are units of the ground forces, that is, the main offensive force on earth. By the beginning of February, we and other analysts counted about 90 or even 100 battalion tactical groups. Each battalion tactical group is an average of seven hundred to a thousand people. If we multiply 100 armed groups by the maximum thousand people, we get 100 thousand.

Footage of the Russian Ministry of Defense demonstrating the withdrawal of troops from the territory near the Ukrainian border Photo: Russian Defense Ministry Press Service/AP/picture alliance arrived in the Black Sea. Together with them, it turns out about 150 thousand. Plus, we can add here the forces of the separatists — the so-called first and second army corps of the «people’s militia» («DPR» and «LPR». — Ed. ), and according to various estimates, there are about 30 thousand fighters in them. In the event of a large-scale war, they will certainly take the side of Russia, this is obvious. Then it turns out that in general, Russian and pro-Russian forces are about 180 thousand people who are located near the territory controlled by Kyiv.

— It is these calculations that allow you to say that Russia has actually completed preparations for a large-scale offensive operation?

— It’s not just about numbers, that is, a large concentration of troops. The point is what kind of troops they bring. Some public figures, for example, Andrei Movchan, said that for a big war there were not enough tankers, or engineering units, or paratroopers, or something else. We have been closely following the conflict from the very beginning and we see that all the necessary elements for a full-scale war are already in place. These are also engineering units that can pave the way through forests and swamps. This includes logistics services, that is, fuel and ammunition. This is the paratroopers. nine0011

Based on the experience of 2014-2015, we can say that both Ukraine and Russia used paratroopers as the first force that enters the battle. In the summer of 2014, the Pskov paratroopers were the first captured soldiers. The paratroopers are now in place, and the marines, and artillery, and even the troops of the national guard are also already on the border of Russia and Ukraine, and this is a very important moment. Because if Russia is preparing for a full-scale war, and not for the next «small invasion», and is going to seize significant territories, then forces are needed that will ensure control over them. The soldiers themselves do not perform such a function. nine0011

At the same time, there is no conscription of reservists in Russia now, although the Western media wrote about it earlier. What they call the conscription of reservists is actually the collection of territorial defense forces, which is called BARS — the country’s combat army reserve, and it is very weak. It is still very far from the estimated figures of one hundred thousand, this is not even close to such a figure. Accordingly, in order to perform the functions of the military police in the occupied territories, there remains only one option of force: the National Guard. After all, they perform exactly the same functions in Syria, in the territories conquered by the Assad regime. That is, they have such experience, and now they are deployed in large numbers along the Russian-Ukrainian border. All the necessary elements for waging a full-scale, namely full-scale, war are already in place. nine0011

— What is the likelihood that this is just a very high quality, detailed dramatization?

— In this situation, it is impossible to distinguish a bluff from a real preparation for a full-scale war. But, if this is a bluff, then it is very high quality. After all, the necessary, even the smallest details, were taken into account and transferred to the border.

— What data do you use in preparing your investigations?

— A lot of information comes from the analysis of social networks and videos posted there, mainly on Tik Tok. Because Russian citizens are now filming a lot about trains, columns (military equipment . — Ed. ) and more. We have an automated program that collects these videos. We analyze about 100-150 fresh videos from Tik Tok per day. On many of them we see trains with military equipment and car numbers. Using these numbers, we contact the absolutely official, legal Russian Railways database. That is, this is not some kind of drain, it is not breaking through, not buying on a darknet forum. This is an absolutely legal database of up-to-date Russian Railways data. By the number of the car, we can see where this train left from. Accordingly, we conclude: when he left and from which military unit, and we understand where this equipment is going. The possible outbreak of war causes a great intensity of emotions. Therefore, many local residents are actively filming military equipment wherever it passes. nine0011

If earlier it was a rarity, now it happens more and more often that we meet every convoy of military equipment leaving its military unit towards the border (with Ukraine. — Rev. ) many times in different places on its way when she passes a particular city. For example: we see that the Second Regiment of Radiation Chemical and Biological Protection Troops has advanced from Samara. Here it is in the Saratov region, it was recorded by one person. Here he is unloading in Kursk, this was recorded by another person. And these tanks are driving in tank carriers towards the border, this was recorded by a fourth person. That is, in fact, people who are absolutely not interconnected with each other independently confirm each other’s information. nine0011

Every day we analyze fresh satellite images for the location of field camps. In addition, since we often make comments in the media, people periodically write to us, saying that some of their relatives serving in such and such a unit received an order to board a train and advance, say, to Voronezh. Although it often happens that we learn information from open sources even before someone tells us it personally.

At the same time, we have never given a single argument that would be built on the basis of just one video recording or the words of one person. With us, everything is always confirmed independently, from different angles, by several sources. Only then do we seriously consider some information and use it in our analysis. nine0011

— The CIT investigation, published just three days ago, says that the Russian military will most likely not completely leave the territory of Belarus after the end of the joint exercises. What do you know about this, on what data do you base this information?

— This is just a guess. First, we remember the spring of last year, when troops were massed to the border of Russia and Ukraine and it was not clear what was happening. Only later, when they had already been pulled down, did the RF Ministry of Defense post factum, as now, stated that these were exercises and they had already been completed. Part of the troops then really left for places of permanent deployment, and part remained in place, as if they had been forgotten there by accident. nine0011

There is a high probability that something similar will happen with Belarus. Moreover, Alexander Lukashenko today, giving a comment to the press, in fact, directly hinted that he intends to discuss the further fate of the Russian troops in Belarus with Vladimir Putin tomorrow and that he would like a missile training center with Russian Iskanders to be created in his country. «so that stocks of Russian ammunition remain here, and so on.

If hostilities do not start before February 20, and I think that neither the West nor Kyiv will make any concessions to Vladimir Putin before that date, the situation will not be resolved. After all, Putin cannot, having received nothing, take and withdraw troops. Most likely, then they (the Russian authorities. — Ed. ) will look for an excuse to leave at least part of the troops in Belarus. This is an important direction for the Russian Federation, because it creates a direct threat to the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv.

— Today The Insider reported, citing CIT, that a pontoon bridge was being built across the Pripyat River near the Belarusian village of Vepr. What role could this crossing play in the event of a military operation?

— This pontoon bridge fully fits into the legend of the exercises, which was announced by Belarus and Russia. They said directly that they would work out, among other things, building pontoon bridges across the Pripyat River. That is, we can say that there are no complaints in this regard. But, on the other hand, if a military campaign starts, and wars, in principle, very often began with exercises for the transfer of troops, then this bridge will help to significantly shorten the path for the withdrawal of Russian troops from the training ground near Yelsk towards Kyiv. Satellite images show that on February 14 this bridge was not yet there, and on February 15 it was ready. Today there are also photographs of him from the ground. nine0011

— Today, the so-called «DPR» and «LPR» announced that Stanytsia Luhanska and the vicinity of Donetsk were under fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Ukrainian media write that separatists are firing. What is really happening in the Donbass?

— As colleagues with whom we have been working since the very beginning of this conflict explain, the situation on the territory of the self-proclaimed «DPR» and «LPR» does not differ much from the times of the past and the year before last, when the conflict was already frozen and there was no particular escalation. Yes, there are skirmishes, but this is an absolutely ordinary event, no different from the usual life of these separatist republics of recent years. It’s just that there was no such escalation then, and reports of shootings did not reach the audience. Today, when attention is drawn to the line of contact with the separatists, it seems that this is something new. But no. In this regard, we do not see even the slightest change, we do not see that at least something is being started or prepared. Yes, they shoot periodically there, but in a war zone this is normal. nine0011

By the way, today they tried to arrange the next production there.